IHS Automotive expect passenger car output within the UK to fall around 1.9% y/y to 1.51 million units for the year.

Passenger car production in the UK slipped back in April, according to the latest data published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Output has retreated by 3.8% year on year (y/y) to 128,312 units. This has caused a further weakening in the year to date (YTD), with output in the first four months of the year now down by 1.4% y/y to 530,505 units. However, commercial vehicle output has surged again in April, with production having jumped by 36.8% y/y to 8,629 units, helping its YTD to increase 23.6% y/y to 25,948 units.

Significance: For passenger cars, the weakness has been as a result of sluggish export demand. As output for the domestic market has grown 11.1% y/y, underpinned by ongoing growth, export production has slid by 7.6% y/y to 98,382 units. Nevertheless, this situation could improve in the coming months and years as automakers continue to invest in local production, with Volkswagen (VW) Group, BMW and Tata Motors being among them. Commercial vehicle production is being driven by local demand (+21.5% y/y in April) and export sales (+50.1% y/y). According to the SMMT, this is stemming from the rallying European market, with indications of this having been seen earlier this week. Among the vehicles that have helped this situation is the introduction of the new Opel/Vauxhall Vivaro. Looking to the rest of the year, IHS Automotive is expecting passenger car output within the UK to fall around 1.9% y/y to 1.51 million units, while light commercial vehicle (LCV) output will grow by close to 23.6% y/y to 54,400 units, albeit on a very low base of comparison, which stood at almost a quarter of levels recorded in 2008.

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