Spanish trade association ANFAC has said that it expects Spanish vehicle production to rise by 11% year-on-year (y/y) during 2013. The group anticipates that around 2.2 million vehicles will be built during the year, but added that far more will need to be done for the country to grow production back towards the 3 million units per annum (upa) level that it formerly saw. This will include greater industrial reforms to attract investment and an improvement in the local market.
Significance: ANFAC released its forecast at the same time as its vehicle production figures for November. During the month, output of passenger cars fell 12.2% y/y to 145,499 units, and has in turn contributed to a 17.6% y/y decline to 1,447,515 units over the 11 months. It added that the number of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) built this month has dived by 23.6% y/y to 4,359 units, which has brought the year-to-date (YTD) tally down by a further 17.9% y/y to 52,313 units. Light commercial vehicle (LCV) production has also fared badly, falling by 36.3% y/y to 18,263 units, which has seen its YTD tumble 27.7% y/y to 190,765 units. While we expect the light-vehicle market to have significantly deteriorated during 2012, we do agree with ANFAC that there will be some improvement in 2013 despite the continued problems in the Eurozone, its key export destination. However, we do not expect output to pick up until 2015 and it will certainly not reach earlier highs over the course of our forecast horizon.
