Balancing the battery loop: Recyclers must manage ambitious growth with strategic caution

Global EV slowdown could cause supply constraints in battery recycling, risking industry resilience as demand, regulations, and second-life trade-offs delay material recovery.

As global EV sales growth moderates and several markets point to a prolonged slowdown, the battery recycling ecosystem built on the assumption of a steep ramp-up in EV penetration now faces a stark mismatch between supply and demand. Fleets of first‑generation EVs are only just beginning to reach the end‑of‑life (EOL), yet recycling facilities and technology platforms have been scaled on the expectation of a flood of spent packs that may now arrive later, slower, or in smaller volumes than projected.